Highest Pressures in Northwest History

By: mandi On: 12:05 PM
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  • I am always intrigued by all-time history weather records and it appears we are experiencing one right now:

    The highest sea level pressure ever recorded at some northwest stations.  For others it is the highest December sea level pressure on record.

    Some folks are complaining about strange sinus pain and headaches, among other maladies.  I know I am feeling a strange tightness in my head.

    And the pressure is still rising as I write this!


     Picture courtesy of John Thoreson

    So what kind of pressures are we talking about?

    At Seattle-Tacoma Airport this morning at 11 AM  the pressure reached 1045.5 hPa (hPa or hectopascals is a unit of pressure).   Another unit of pressure is inches of mercury (often used on TV).   In that unit, the pressure reached 30.87 inches.   Wow.

    At the same time, here are some other amazing sea level pressures:

    Bellingham                   1046.4 hPa
    Whidbey Island  NAS  1046.2
    Portland                        1043.9
    Pasco and The Dalles   1048.9

    Now let's talk about records, and keep in mind that average sea level pressure around here is approximately 1013 hPa.

    Seattle's pressure this morning (1045.5 hPa) is THE ALL TIME RECORD FOR ANY DATE.   The old record was 1043.1 hPa set on December 1, 2011.
    (The period of record goes back to 1948)

    Astoria breached its ALL TIME SEA LEVEL PRESSURE RECORD by climbing to 1042.9 hPa or 30.80 inches.   The old record was 30.74 inches.

    Many locations have reached their all-time December records (such as Portland, Yakima, and Walla Walla)

    To get some perspective on the pressure distribution, here is the official National Weather Service analysis at 7 AM.  Their analysis shows the highest pressure (1056 hPa)  high in British Columbia.    The highest pressure EVER observed ANYWHERE in the continental U.S. was 1064 hPa on December 24, 1983 at a location in Montana.


    To give you an idea of how unusual this pressure is, take a look at the plot of sea level pressure at Seattle Tacoma Airport for the last 12 weeks.  Nothing even close to what is happening now.

    Why is the sea level pressure so high?  

    We start with a strong ridge along, as illustrated by the forecast upper level (500 hPa, about 18,000 ft) map at 10 AM (see below).   The solid lines are heights (like pressure) and colors are temperature.  You can see a high-amplitude upper-level ridge extending over the northwest.


    This kind of pattern is conducive to the movement of cooler air over our region (northeasterly flow).   Cool air is more dense, so that increases the pressure even more.   To show this, here is the 850 hPa (about 5000 ft) heights and temperatures (color shaded).  The purple and blues indicate cool air.


    So this pattern got everything right:   high pressure aloft and cool air near the surface...both leading to high sea level pressure.

    For those who are suffering from the high pressure there is a cure....drive up into the Cascades or up one of our local hills.  Pressure drops about 1 hPa every 8 meters.  Even taking the elevator up the Columbia Center Tower or the Space Needle will help.  But some warning.  Some folks get headaches, sinus pain, and arthritis flair ups when pressure drops rapidly!

    A Dramatic Double Convergence Zone

    By: mandi On: 10:49 AM
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  • Western Washington residents are quite familiar with the Puget Sound convergence zone, a band of clouds and precipitation that forms east of the Olympics during westerly to northwesterly flow.   But there can be other convergence zones downstream of regional terrain barriers, such as the mountains of Vancouver Island.  

    This morning, conditions produced TWO convergence zones at the the same time, one extending southeast of the Olympics, the other Vancouver Island.   Pretty dramatic stuff.  Here are two radar images to illustrate (thanks to Andrew MacMillen for pointing this out).

    First, a regional view from the Camano Island radar at 4:44 AM.  Two bands are clearly evident.


    And a close up view at 4:53 AM with terrain. Amazing image.  The northern line forms downstream of Vancouver Island, with precipitation become quite intense from Port Townsend to Lynnwood.  The second line, downstream of the Olympics, is weaker and reaches across Seattle.  


    As with many convergence zones, precipitation extends into the western slopes of the Cascades.  In fact, Steven's Pass ski area got a piece of this, with their base snow increasing to nearly 40 inches (FINALLY!).  I hear their upper lot is already full.

    Convergence zone precipitation is enhanced when air is unstable at low levels, often when cold air passes over the relatively warm water of the Pacific.  The convergence zones have dissipated now, but the 10 AM visible satellite picture shows the instability clouds off the coast--you can even see their NW-SE orientation, which is parallel to the low-level wind.


    A radiosonde sounding on the Washington coast at Quillayute shows the strong northwesterly winds that approached the coast during the double convergence zone (height in pressure is on the y axis, with 500 about 18,000 ft.).  This plot also shows temperature (read) and dew point (blue dashed) with height.   A moist lower layer near the ocean (temp and dew point are nearly the same) and dry air aloft.


    Strong northwesterly flow tends is favorable for producing a convergence zone extending downstream of Vancouver Island, since the island is oriented this way.  The more circular Olympic mountains allows convergence zones from a greater variety of directions.

    And forget about convergence zone or any other precipitation the next few days, as a ridge of high pressure builds over Washington.  Enjoy the sun.    A special New Year's gift for us.

    Is Numerical Weather Prediction One of Mankind's Greatest Achievements?

    By: mandi On: 10:04 AM
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  • Mankind has achieved some marvels during the past several thousand years, from landing on the moon and the construction of the pyramids to modern computers and genetic engineering.    But perhaps weather prediction, and particularly numerical weather prediction, deserves to be in the Pantheon of the highest achievements of our species, and this blog will explain why.

    Landing a man on the moon, was in many ways, a less impressive 
    achievement than modern weather prediction.

    Modern weather prediction is perhaps the most cooperative activity of our species.  To forecast the weather anywhere on the globe require weather data everywhere on the globe.   A disturbance over China today, can be over the U.S. in a few days, and vice versa.   Even during the cold war we shared data with China and the Soviet Union.  Nearly every nation exchanges its weather data with others, with few exceptions (like North Korea).



    Modern weather prediction requires the ability to simulate atmospheric effects on a vast range of scales ranging from the molecular to the planetary.  To predict the weather one must deal with the condensation of water vapor on microscopic particles less than a micron (millionth of a meter) in size on one hand to planetary circulations of many thousands of kilometers on the other.

    Modern weather prediction uses the world's most powerful computers and the associated model software includes millions of lines of code.  Some of the biggest computers in the world are used for weather/climate simulation.  For example, the UK Meteorology Office just purchased a 16 petaflop computer from CRAY (a petaflop is a thousand trillion operations per second).

    Seattle's CRAY Supercomputers have become the hardware of choice for leading numerical weather prediction efforts

    The number of lives saved and the economic value of weather prediction is beyond measure.  Superstorm Sandy hit the NY Metro area, home of tens of millions of people, with hurricane-force winds and major coastal flooding.   Roughly 150 lost their lives and many of them did so because they ignored the forecasts.  A similar storm hit a far more sparsely populated area of eastern Long Island in 1938 and over a thousand people perished. In 1900, a hurricane hit Galveston Texas and 6000 people died.  Weather prediction is now an essential tool for farmers and for those that manage our dams and roads, to mention only a few applications.  And if the weather becomes more extreme under global warming, improved weather prediction will play a large role in protecting life and property.

    The amount of data collected for operational numerical weather prediction is staggering.  Petabytes of weather data are streaming to earth from dozens of weather satellites each day. Hundreds of thousands of surface stations, roughly a thousand radiosondes, thousands of ships and buoys, thousands of aircraft, lightning detection networks, and other sensors are reporting each day, adding up to tens to hundreds terabytes of information daily.   All this data is distributed around the world, quality controlled, and used to provide a physically consistent description of the three-dimensional atmosphere.
    A NOAA Polar Orbiter Weather Satellite

    Modern numerical forecasting went from non-existent in 1950 to highly skillful today.  The following chart is my favorite.  It shows increasing skill at 3, 5, 7, and 10 days at 500 hPa (about 18,000 ft) at one major forecasting center (the European Center, ECMWF).  Major increases in skill at each time projection (up is better). But even more impressive is the fact that southern hemisphere forecast skill (the lower lines for each color band) now equals to the northern (which has much surface and upper air observations).  The major reason:  weather satellites


    So during this end-of-year season it is good to reflect on how far we have come in weather prediction, even though we have the potential to push the science and technology much further.  And we should not forget the dedicated folks that developed the models, the scientists/engineers that designed the satellites and observing systems, and the human forecasters that interpret and communicate the model output.   A huge and expensive enterprise that is worth the investment.  And one that has been been a successful partnership between the government and private sectors.

    The media spends so much time highlighting what is wrong with society. But sometime we should think about our great positive achievements, particularly those dependent on the active positive cooperation of mankind.  Weather prediction surely is one of them.


    Goodbye Hawaii, Hello Ridge

    By: mandi On: 12:08 PM
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  • During the past weeks, the Pineapple Express has been running in one way or the other, bring warm, moist air to the West Coast.  The atmospheric moisture forecast for 1 PM (below) shows the story, with a stream of large moisture content heading from the islands to our region.  This warm air has not been good for the local ski areas, many of which have opened with marginal conditions.


    The last two weeks have been extraordinarily warm, with the minimum temperatures of most days falling to roughly the average maximum for the day.  Here is the departure of the average temperatures from normal for the last two weeks for the western U.S.   Amazing.   Quite a few places have been 12-15F above normal, particularly in Idaho and Montana.  But Washington and Oregon have many areas 4-8F above normal.

    The West Coast has been wetter than normal, particularly California, where many locations received 200%+ of normal precipitation.  The good news is that the big reservoirs like Shasta  have begun to fill.

    Here is the Mt. Shasta reservoir levels....big upswing (dark blue line), but still below normal (blue shading).


    But the big weather story for the Northwest is the major regime change that is about to occur, with a major ridge developing over the eastern Pacific bring drying and cooler temperatures.  To illustrate, here is the upper-level flow forecast for 4 PM on Friday.  BIG RIDGE.  And one that will bring cooler air into eastern WA, Montana, and the central Plains.  We will finally be cut off from the Pineapple Express.


    Take a look at the Climate Prediction Center 6-10 day temperature forecast.  Blue indicates colder than normal.
    Regarding snow, there will be some snow in the mountains at the tail end of the current event (see graphic), but after that the ridge will have its impact, drying things out.   Enough to allow local ski areas to stay open until they get a real storm.


    Weather News

    By: mandi On: 6:15 AM
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    By: mandi On: 6:07 AM
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